An article published in the December issue of Diabetes Care presents a model developed by researchers from the Department of Medicine of the University of Chicago for projecting future health care costs.

According to the article, the number of people with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes will increase from 23.7 million in 2009 to 44.1 million in 2034, and the annual diabetes-related spending is expected to increase from $113 billion to $336 billion. The rise in numbers and cost are driven mostly by the estimated growth in population and in older age groups.

Obesity does not play a significant role in the increase since the overall obesity distribution in the non-diabetes population is expected to remain fairly stable over time, with 65% of the population being overweight or obese. The percentage categorized as overweight in the non-diabetes population is expected to remain steady at 35% over the time period. The percent categorized as obese is expected to drop slightly from 30% in 2009 to 27% in 2033.